On December 13, 2022, at the seventh session of the Fourth Standing Council held by the China Cotton Association, Su Xuhong, deputy secretary-general of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region Cotton Association, gave a brief introduction to the new cotton market in Xinjiang in 2022 and pointed out that now Problems existing in the industry were put forward and corresponding opinions and suggestions were put forward.
1. The autonomous region government attaches great importance to the development of the cotton industry
1. The planting layout is more optimized, and cotton production continues to be concentrated in advantageous production areas. The cotton output of the 25 main local producing counties accounts for more than 90% of the total cotton output in the region.
2. The main cotton varieties are controlled within 40, and the problem of many cotton varieties and chaos has been improved.
3. Advanced and applicable technologies for cotton planting are continuously promoted, with the green prevention and control rate of pests reaching over 96%. The “dry sowing and wet harvesting” technology has been promoted over an area of 18.72 million acres, and the cotton mechanized harvest rate has reached 83%.
4. Formulate the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in Cotton HarvestQuality Control Work”, and continue to do a good job in spraying cotton defoliants, standardizing the operation of cotton picking machines, and “new and old” Quality control measures have been implemented in key links such as “Three Silk” management to improve cotton quality from the source.
5. This year, the autonomous region revised the “Autonomous Region Cotton Target Price Subsidy and Quality Pilot Implementation Plan”, summarized the pilot operation experience, optimized supporting measures, and highlighted the precise guidance of quality data. Promote the implementation of the policy of “excellent cotton, excellent price, high quality and excellent supplements”. In 18 cotton-growing counties (cities) in 6 prefectures, 328 companies continued to promote the linking of price subsidies and quality, and the pilot companies purchased 623,700 tons of seed cotton as of now. Cotton quality is generally stable this year.
6. The autonomous region government has held multiple special meetings to study outstanding issues such as Xinjiang cotton sales and prices under the new situation, and try its best to help enterprises bail out and stabilize the cotton industry. The “Work Plan for Accelerating Cotton Sales and Optimizing Production Capacity Layout” was issued to support financial institutions in extending loan repayments to cotton enterprises in difficulty and granting credit for new loans. Actively report the problem of “difficulties in Xinjiang cotton sales” to relevant national ministries and commissions, and strive for policy support.
2. Cotton production in 2022/23
In 2022, the autonomous region’s cotton planting area is 37.467 million acres (of which 24.727 million acres are local and 12.74 million acres are for the Corps), which is basically the same as the previous year; the total output is expected to be 5.25 million tons (of which 3.12 million tons are local and 2.13 million tons are for the Corps) ), an increase of about 4% over the previous year; the yield per unit area is 140 kg/mu (including 130 kg/mu for local areas and 167 kg/mu for the Corps), an increase of about 3% over the previous year. Cotton production shows a development momentum of stable area, increased unit yield, and increased total output.
3. Cotton purchase and processing situation in the new year
The launch of new cotton coincides with the outbreak of multiple epidemics in Xinjiang. Affected by prevention and control policies, personnel and transportation movements are restricted. Cotton harvesting, processing, warehousing, public inspection, and sales cannot be carried out normally, and the acquisition progress is delayed. , cotton unit cost increases. In this regard, the autonomous region government held a special cotton scheduling research and judgment meeting, issued and implemented the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in New Cotton Acquisition in 2022” and “On Guaranteeing the Directional Flow of Cotton Acquisition and Processing Technical Service Personnel, Vehicles and Materials in our Region under the Epidemic Situation” Work Plan” and “Special Improvement Work Plan for Cotton Market Order and Quality in the Autonomous Region in 2022”, etc., to maintain the order of the cotton procurement market and stabilize market expectations.
As of December 8, Xinjiang has purchased a total of 14.601 million tons of seed cotton, a year-on-year increase of 3.34%. Processed lint3.038 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.81%. The cumulative storage volume was 2.214 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 39.91%. 756 cotton companies inspected 2.0889 million tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 43.59%. The gap between the lint processing volume and the public inspection volume is about 1 million tons.
The current delivery price of 41/31 pairs of 28 in Xinjiang’s inner warehouse, containing impurities within 3.1%, is 13,650-14,500 yuan/ton. With the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, road transportation has improved, cotton companies have increased their sales enthusiasm, and the sales price of lint has increased. smooth. A total of 473,200 tons of Xinjiang cotton were shipped, a year-on-year increase of 37.3%.
4. Existing problems
1. The pressure on the cotton market has not changed significantly, and cotton companies are under great credit pressure. Last year’s old cotton has not yet been sold out, global production is growing, consumption is declining, cotton supply is relatively abundant, and frequent international and domestic emergencies have led to increased uncertainty in cotton market prices. The cotton market risks in the new year are still high. The implementation of the “Xinjiang-related Act” has had a substantial adverse impact on Xinjiang’s cotton industry and even the entire textile and garment industry. Consumption expectations are low. As of now, some cotton loans for last year’s cotton have not been recovered. Due to the impact of cotton since the beginning of the year Affected by the price drop, the current average inventory price is still much higher than the futures market price. If you rely on the sales of remaining lint inventory for repayment, you will face certain debt repayment pressure and credit risk prevention and control pressure.
2. The entire Xinjiang cotton industry chain needs to be further improved. In recent years, with the continuous deepening of the cotton target price reform in Xinjiang, the development of the cotton industry has been improved. However, the current degree of cotton industrialization in Xinjiang is still very low, the market driving mechanism has not yet emerged, there is a lack of cotton production and marketing channels in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, and the level of industrial development needs to be further improved. .
3. Planting costs continue to rise, farmers’ production enthusiasm and cotton market competitiveness have declined. According to survey data, only cotton land transfer costs and physical and chemical costs have increased by 600 yuan/mu this year, and cotton production costs have exceeded 3,000 yuan/mu. The cost of cotton production in Xinjiang continues to increase, which on the one hand reduces the enthusiasm of cotton farmers for production and on the other hand, costs are high leading to a decline in comparative advantage,It is not conducive to improving the international competitiveness of my country’s cotton industry.
5. Focus on future work
Based on the current marketsituation analysis, the demand for cotton is not strong, and it is difficult for prices to have a major breakthrough in the short term. Following the market and accelerating sales have been the mainstream of cotton products sold recently. In the future, the development of Xinjiang’s cotton industry must still be based on the unique advantages of Xinjiang’s cotton resources, continue to consolidate the strategic position of Xinjiang’s main cotton producing areas, and promote the high-quality development of the cotton industry. Continue to improve the cotton target price reform policy and supporting measures, promote the linkage of cotton subsidies with quality, promote the improvement of cotton quality and efficiency, so as to develop agriculture and increase farmers’ income. Actively respond to the suppression and sanctions of Xinjiang cotton by the United States and the West, build an excellent brand of Xinjiang cotton with quality, and promote the healthy development of Xinjiang cotton. Give full play to the functions of financial institutions, make good use of various financial tools, speed up the sales of old cotton, and support the bailout of cotton enterprises. It is necessary to adhere to a game of chess on the battlefield, further unify policies, unify planning, unify supervision, and unify the market, and jointly make Xinjiang’s cotton industry bigger and stronger.
6. Suggestions for promoting the development of Xinjiang’s cotton industry
1. 2022/23 is the last year for the implementation of this round of cotton target price policy. It is recommended to continue to promote the implementation of this policy in Xinjiang, and actively explore “futures + pilot” and “quality and New interest protection models such as “subsidy linking” will gradually establish a perfect cotton production income guarantee and green development subsidy system.
2. The Xinjiang cotton target price of 18,600 yuan/ton has been implemented for seven years. In recent years, the cost of cotton planting in Xinjiang has continued to rise. It is recommended that when formulating a new round of cotton target price reform policies, the objective factors of cotton planting cost growth should be fully considered. According to the situation, in accordance with the principle of “cotton planting cost + reasonable income”, the target price level will be appropriately increased to ensure that cotton farmers obtain cotton planting income that is basically the same as in 2016.
3. The key to improving Xinjiang’s cotton market competitiveness is to improve quality. It is recommended that separate allocation and separate accounting of cotton quality subsidies can enhance the targeting of subsidies, stabilize cotton farmers’ expectations for quality subsidies, and promote the high-quality development of Xinjiang cotton.
4. Support the export of Xinjiang cotton to non-cotton-producing countries to stimulate market demand, balance domestic supply and demand, stabilize cotton price levels and promote the healthy and sustainable development of Xinjiang’s cotton industry. </p
